2013-06-19

Water-Shortage Crisis Escalating in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin

-- a _kt75 | reprint


  


Key Points Since 1975, Turkey’s extensive dam and hydropower construction has reportedly reduced water flows into Iraq and Syria by approximately 80 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Approximately 90 per cent of the water flow in the Euphrates and 50 per cent in the Tigris originate in Turkey. Low flow rates in Iraq have allowed salt water to infiltrate nearly 150km inland from the Persian Gulf. Lack of international agreement is hampering progress on a deal between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. Turkey has accused Iraq of poor water management practices, which, it says, are exacerbating Iraq’s water crisis. Tensions between these countries remain high because of the issue of water management.

Summary The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, originating in Turkey and cutting through both Syria and Iraq, have experienced drastic reductions in water flows in recent years due, primarily, to Turkish hydro-engineering and regional droughts. This is of significance for Iraq, which has historically prospered because of the rich agricultural harvests based on water supplies sourced from these waterways. Turkish initiatives aimed at massively expanding their exploitation of the water from the two rivers have coincided with severe droughts in the region and resulted in a burgeoning water-shortage crisis in Iraq. This problem threatens an environmental catastrophe. Political negotiations between the three countries have so far fallen short of reaching agreement on providing the necessary increases in flow rates to address the deteriorating situation in Iraq.

Analysis Under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin was effectively managed. After the collapse of the empire in 1922, and the establishment of the independent states of Turkey, Syria and Iraq, these rivers became a shared resource with the potential for conflict. Iraq has historically been the predominant user of water from these rivers and a large network of Karez, or man-made underground irrigation channels, has existed there for centuries. This was not a problem in the early and mid-twentieth century, as Turkey and Syria did not develop expansive systems using dams and irrigation. When this began to change in the 1970s, however, Iraq’s claim to the bulk of the basin’s water resources was suddenly under threat.
The world’s population is increasing rapidly and the Middle East has some of the fastest rates of population growth. With Iraq and Syria experiencing a fourfold increase and Turkey doubling its population since the 1960s, it is clear that all three countries have experienced rapid growth in demand for the resources used by their people. Turkey has taken bold action on this front, with its decision in 1975 to undertake the Southeast Anatolia Project (Güneydogu Anadolu Projesi, GAP); a massive dam-building scheme that envisages the construction of 22 dams and 19 hydropower plants across the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The scheme requires hundreds of kilometres of irrigation canals and is expected to cover 75,000km² – almost 10 per cent of the surface area of Turkey. GAP is approximately 60 per cent complete and much of Turkey’s increase in water use has already occurred, creating significant reductions in the flow of water in downstream areas of both the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. One projection states that, when completed, GAP will reduce the flow of water into Iraq by approximately 80 per cent and into Syria by about 40 per cent. This has spelt bad news for Iraq, as their historic levels of usage have been based on being the predominant user of these water resources. With Syria also beginning to construct dams along the Euphrates River, declining flows into Iraq have reached a crisis point. Read on... and try
the new hydro power inventory _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1:

_watch the promo video http://youtu.be/xi6ZMYDfkyE
_look at the presentation http://goo.gl/YqmMi
_read the white paper http://goo.gl/T8T4M

2013-06-18

Renewable Energy's Hidden Costs?

-- a _kt75 | reprint


  

A recent Bloomberg press release got wide coverage with its claim that wind power is now cheaper than coal. But a new report from the OECD shows that when you cover the full cost to the grid, variable renewables like wind don’t add up as favourably.

It is often claimed that introducing variable renewable energy resources such as solar and wind into the electricity network comes with some extra cost penalties, due to “system effects”. These system effects include intermittent electricity access, network congestion, instability, environmental impacts, and security of supply.

Now a new report from the OECD titled System Effects of Low-Carbon Electricity Systems gives some hard dollar values for these additional imposts. The OECD work focuses on nuclear power, coal, gas, and renewables such as wind and solar. Their conclusion is that grid-level system costs can have significant impacts on the total cost of delivered electricity for some power-generation technologies.

All generation technologies cause system effects to some degree. They are all connected to the same transmission and distribution grid structure and deliver electricity into the same market. They also exert impacts on each other, on the total load available to satisfy demand, and the stability of the grid’s frequency control. These dependencies are heightened by the fact that only small amounts of cost-efficient electricity storage are available. Read the complete article...& download the supporting paper.

2013-06-14

Iran Abandons Chinese Help, to Build World’s Highest Hydroelectric Plant Alone

-- a _kt75 | reprint


  


Iran, pummeled by years of international sanctions, has had two energy goals.

First, to preserve its dwindling international hydrocarbon market share, increasingly battered by years of U.S. and UN sanctions designed to slow down and halt its civilian nuclear energy program, which Washington and Tel Aviv have long insisted masks a covert program to develop a nuclear weapons program.

The second, much less reported in the foreign press, is to diversify its indigenous energy infrastructure, so as to preserve its hydrocarbon assets for the long term.
In pursuit of the latter goal, Iran is ramping up its hydroelectric program.

Iran currently has 23 operational hydropower plants, with a combined electricity generating capacity of 8.2 gigawatts, 14 percent of the nation’s total generating capacity of 58.5 gigawatts. A further 4.8 gigawatts of capacity is under construction, with 12.7 gigawatts of hydro capacity is either undergoing feasibility study or in the early design stages.

The centerpiece of Iran’s hydroelectric ambitions is the $1.5 billion Bakhtiari Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant in southwest Iran across the Bakhtiari River in the Zargos mountains in Iran’s western Lurestan province, with a capacity of about 169 billion cubic feet of water. Read the full article... 

Check out the new hydro power inventory _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1:

_watch the promo video http://youtu.be/xi6ZMYDfkyE
_look at the presentation http://goo.gl/YqmMi
_read the white paper http://goo.gl/T8T4M



2013-05-30

Release Announcement: _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1 (single window version)

-- a _kt75 | note




Keywords: hydro power, Africa, _sustinvent+, _sustindex, water dams

Important: Use Firefox, Chrome or Opera to run _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1.

As of today, 30th May 2013, the newest release of _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1 is available. This intermediate release comprises a number of functional as well as content related modifications since the release of v0.20 (23rd January 2013). On the one hand it represents the finalisation of the fundamental design process of the data base, of the graphical user interface (GUI) as well as of the data handling. On the other hand, with the completion of the inventory of the major water dam facilities (volumes: larger than 1’000’000 m3) located in Africa (in total more than 1’200 data sets) a first pivotal data package for future comprehensive sustainability analyses is available. Fundamental in this context is the evaluation and harmonisation (corrections applied where necessary) among the FAO-data sets (2009), national inventories and owner specific information. Accordingly, _sustinvent+ is currently the only data base that provides reviewed water dam information. You may

  _explore the tool via http://goo.gl/yZFx6 or visit http://kt75-mirror.blogspot.ch/p/kt75-interactive.html
  _watch the promo video http://youtu.be/xi6ZMYDfkyE
  _look at the presentation http://goo.gl/YqmMi
  _read the white paper http://goo.gl/T8T4M

Technically _sustinvent+ v0.51 RC1 is designed as single window, cross-platform tool and requires the following minimal requirements:

  _Web browser Mozilla Firefox, Google Chrome or Opera are supported; Safari and Internet Explorer are not supported 
  _Java needs to be enabled in the browser 
  _Flash Adobe Flash Player is required
  _Pop-up Windows need to be enabled


The white paper describes briefly the newest release of _sustinvent+, informs quickly about the functionality and provides a brief outlook concerning the planned next steps. Read more...

2013-05-17

Inside Sustainability: Facts, Figures, Bullshit - Part III: Sales/Turnover Figures
_kt75 | reflections 01.3/2013

-- a _kt75 | reflection
 
💾 _download Paper: server 1 | server 2
💾 _download Supporting Information: server 1 | server 2


 
😐 _download troubles: get your free copy
 
Keywords Genuine sustainable development, turnover, sales figures, hype, car makers, China, overhang-effect, overlap-effect.
 
Figures contained:
_Annual GDP growth in China 2003-2013 (incl. projections till 2015)
_Sales figures of Audi, BMW and VW 2008-2012
_CO2-emissions China 2008-2012
_Ground plan of Chinese expressway network 2010
_Annual road fatalities in China 2008-2012
 
Summary Corporate sales/turnover figures represent the quantitative and qualitative specification of the impacts of any kind on resources of any type. Also here are ‘facts’ and ‘figures’ vehicles typically used to promote, convey and enforce interests in a more or less reliable way. The car industry, with particular consideration of the so-called ‘emerging economies’ (e.g. China), represents an excellent basis to analyse this issue. In this context the recent series of _kt75 | reflections provides facts and figures on the facts and figures with a particular focus on ‘sustainable development’. Essentially, it aims to put facts and figures in a realistic and reliable context to each other and tries to interpret the rationale behind the facts and figures and the way they are supplied.
Part III of this series of the _kt75 | reflections reasons about the sustainability of sales/turnover figures. It demonstrates the link between drastically growing car sales in China (partly up to +50%), the rapidly growing road construction sector, the in turn related rising bitumen demand (up to +20% until 2020) and the number of road fatalities in one of the most dangerous countries world-wide when it comes to traffic. In addition, this reflection provides a simple but logic theoretical explanation of the dynamics behind sales figures and related effects.
Consequentially, the paper demonstrates that sales figures typically are conversely related to e.g. environmental impacts, i.e. the higher the volumes of sold goods, the more drastic the consequences. It also discusses the most likely shift of energy consumption from e.g. Europe to e.g. Asia (i.e. towards the emerging economies), thus lowering the potential ‘benefit’ of the so-called ‘energy turnaround’ [Scharnhorst, 2013b].
Discussing the above four cases individually (Parts I – IV), summarising them in the final roundup (Part V) and concentrating on the insights gained in the past, this _kt75 | reflection hypothesises that the exclusively technology focussed and quantity based approaches, as widely promoted today, to implement sustainable development have failed (key failure factors are, among others: the human himself, money and information [Scharnhorst, 2013b]). Therefore, a well-balanced turnaround towards genuine and comprehensive sustainable development that takes qualitative and quantitative aspects as well as the technical, the environmental, the economic and the geo-political (societal) dimensions into account is proposed. Read the full paper...
 
Read the previous reflections
💾 _01.1/2013: http://goo.gl/bKMfN
💾 _01.2/2013: http://goo.gl/mqFvZ
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