The Iranian Water Crisis: A Strategic Analysis

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Abstract In 2013 faced with a critical shortage of water, the Iranian government called for water conservation and greater water use efficiency nation-wide. Despite imminent shortages, water use in Iran remains inefficient, with domestic use 70 per cent higher than the global average. Iran has a national population of 75 million people, 12 million of whom reside in the capital; demand for water is rapidly increasing, even as major lakes and groundwater resources begin to shrink. Population growth, more frequent droughts and the effects of climate change are creating the ‘perfect storm’ for future water insecurity. We are left with the question, are the proposed changes too little, too late?

Paper (abbrev.) Security in the Middle East continues to focus on the political and geostrategic priorities of regional states, but a greater challenge has now presented itself, in the form of natural resource scarcity and vulnerable water supplies. Issa Kalantari, former Iranian Minister for Agriculture has stated in an interview that the water crisis in Iran is the biggest problem threatening the state.

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Overshadowed in global current affairs by Iranian politics and the negotiations over its nuclear program, the looming water crisis presents a formidable challenge. Located in one of the most arid regions in the world, Iran has an annual average precipitation rate of 252 millimetres, approximately one third of the global average. Exacerbating the severity of water shortages, as much as 70 per cent of precipitation is lost to evaporation. Estimates suggest that lower-than-average precipitation in 2013 caused a 30 per cent reduction in the volume of water in dams across the country, with only five exceeding 90 per cent capacity. According to the Institute for Forest and Pasture Research, groundwater levels have dropped two metres in recent years across 70 plains, affecting as much as 100 million hectares. According to the UN Development Program, the level of Iran’s per capita water resources are predicted to fall to as little as 816m³ in 2025, down from 2,025m³ in 1990. Iran is divided into six key and 31 secondary catchment areas.

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Besides the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Basins, all of Iran’s basins are located in the interior, where renewable freshwater sources are limited. Close to half of Iran’s total renewable water is located in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Basins, representing one quarter of its land mass. Conversely, the Markazi Basin covers more than half of Iran’s land mass, but holds less than one-third of
the available freshwater. Over 84 per cent of Iran is arid or semi-arid; over 50 per cent of the country is either desert or mountain; and 16 per cent of the Iranian landmass has an elevation of 2000m or more above sea level. Streams are seasonal, causing flooding during spring and drying during summer, leading to significant variability in freshwater access for those reliant on surface water resources. Due to high evaporation of surface water, Iranian’s have, for centuries, used traditional methods of water transport and access to supply their freshwater resources. More than 2000 years old, the Qanat is still used in Iran today and is designed to access and transfer groundwater without the use of lifting devices. Wells are sunk every 20 to 50 metres along the system, with a tunnel then built to link the wells on a slope from higher ground. Groundwater flows naturally down the tunnel till it reaches a surface point at the end, either in a town or city, or by creating an artificial desert oasis. Read on...